Donald Trump’s lead in polls over Joe Biden continues to widen

Former President of the US Donald Trump and President of the US Joe Biden | Credits: AP Photo
Former President of the US Donald Trump and President of the US Joe Biden | Credits: AP Photo

United States: The analysis of polling statistics reveals a slim edge for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in the forthcoming presidential election, with his advantage displaying a minor increase.

In the third month of the year, the former holder of the office and the incumbent leader secured their individual nominations for the 2024 presidential race under the banners of the Republican and Democratic parties following a series of victories in preliminary contests.

The current polling data suggests a tightly contested competition, with both candidates either closely matched or holding slight advantages.

Nevertheless, there are signs that Trump may be gaining traction, according to reports by Newsweek.

According to electoral forecasters at 270 to Win, Trump currently maintains a narrow edge in the nationwide surveys, averaging slightly under two percentage points ahead of Biden (45.8 percent to Biden’s 44 percent) based on the most recent eight polls, as emphasized by Newsweek.

Former President of the US Donald Trump | Credits: AP Photo

Additionally, according to the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the Republican nominee holds a 1.5 percent edge over his Democratic counterpart as of May 24th. This marks the largest lead Trump had held since April 2nd when he enjoyed a similar margin.

While there have been fluctuations in Trump’s lead over Biden in the intervening days and weeks, such as on April 23rd, when his lead was a mere 0.3 percent, there has been a slight increase overall from the beginning of April to the end of May.

This trend is also reflected in data from RacetotheWH, another platform monitoring presidential election polling, which shows Trump with a net lead of 1.3 percent—the highest recorded since April 1st.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for both Trump and Biden via email outside of regular business hours for comment on this development. Any responses received will be incorporated into this story.

The forthcoming 2024 presidential election’s outcome is poised to pivot significantly on a select few pivotal swing states, notwithstanding the insights gleaned from nationwide polling data. This prognostication stems from the structural underpinning of the United States Electoral College system, whereby electoral votes are apportioned to individual states in correspondence with their population metrics. A requisite to clinch victory is the attainment of no less than 270 electoral votes, with mere national popular vote triumph proving insufficient to secure the presidency.

The admonition against affording undue weight to preliminary polls has been underscored by Thomas Gift, the esteemed Director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London.

President of the US Joe Biden | Credits: Getty Images

“Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states,” he said, adding, “Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool’s errand,” as reported by Newsweek.

The presidential election is scheduled for November 5th.